We have wrapped up the first ever CrossFit Quarterfinal, where we saw that top 10% of athletes from each continent go through 5 tests to see who advances to Semi-Finals.
As I looked at the cut lines this weekend, and saw these large fields drop to 120, 60 or 30 athletes depending on the continent, it made me wonder, how hard is it to make it to the next stage?
When you look at it from a season perspective, only the elite of the elite make it to the CrossFit Games with 0.031% to 0.049% of women who registered for the CrossFit Open advancing to the Games depending on continent. For men the range was smaller at 0.023% to 0.03%.
With the introduction of CrossFit Quarterfinals, CrossFit HQ made it easy, the top 10% of Open registrants from each continent would advance to their respective quarterfinals. It was clean and easy approach to separate the really fit athletes from the rest of the field.
For the athletes competing in Quarterfinals, a spot in the Semifinals was the prize. Based on past Open registrations, CrossFit HQ awarded 10 Semifinals split by continent; 4 to North America, 2 to Europe and 1 each to South America, Africa, Asia and Oceania. With 30 spots per Semifinal, this gave North American athletes 120 spots to compete for, 60 in Europe and 30 in the other 4 continents.
Given the small number of Semifinal spots available, an athlete’s chances to advance decreased dramatically in Quarterfinals. From a numbers perspective Africa was the easiest continent to advance from Quarterfinals to Semifinals with 10.07% of the women’s field and 7.04% of men’s field moving onto Semifinals. North America was the hardest to advance in, with a mere 1.84% of the women’s field and 1.64% of the men’s field advancing to the Semifinals.
Looking ahead from Semifinals, 5 athletes from each Semifinal in North America and Europe will advance to the CrossFit Games, giving them 20 and 10 athletes respectively. 3 athletes will advance from the Oceania Semifinal, 2 from both Asia and South America, and 1 African athlete will advance to the CrossFit Games.
Advancing to the CrossFit Games from Semifinals is statistically easier in North America and Europe than any of the previous stages with 16.67% of athletes advancing. This is significantly higher than the 10% that advanced from the Open to Quarterfinals and the 1.64% – 2.7% of athletes that advanced from Quarterfinals to Semi Finals.
In the other continents, Oceania sees 10% of their athletes advancing to the Games from Semifinals, 6.67% from Asia and South America and the 3.33% from Africa.
While the competition will undoubtedly be harder in the next round, and programming will determine the best of the best, the majority of athletes that remain for Semifinals can think positively that the hardest cut line is behind them.